Momentum Trades

Author name: mome2143

Daily Update, Momentum Options

September Mixed as S&P and Blue-Chips Slip

Pre-Market Update: The bulls and bears survived a volatile September, and both sides seem to be feeling good about the action. Friday’s rebound gave the bulls the weekly win, and momentum is on their side heading into this week as well. The bears will be looking for some October magic, but, while this month has been known for some massive selloffs, it has been historically bullish.

Momentum Options, Daily Update

VIX Closes Back Below 12.50

Pre-Market Update: Trading was choppy on Wednesday, but the market gained strength after a spike in the price of crude oil. News that major oil-producing nations had reached a deal to reduce production drove black gold higher and lifted the major indices. Additionally, the U.S. Senate cleared a bill to fund the government through the first week of December in order to avoid another possible shutdown.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bears Get Monday Win

Pre-Market Update: The bears got their second-straight Monday win on the Dow yesterday, making it two in a row following the pullback to support. Volatility ticked higher, although the bulls held resistance ahead of last night’s presidential debate. Both candidates will say they stole the spotlight, but Wall Street could care less, as money managers are just waiting for the next major market move.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) Could Test 52-Week Highs

Mid-Market Update: Although earnings season is still a few weeks away, it is always good to look ahead and do some early homework. I normally don’t take too many earnings trades, and I would like to be out of our current Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) trade ahead of its announcement, which is due to be released the last week of October. Nonetheless, I decided to take a look at the company’s numbers.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bulls Trying to Keep Month-End Momentum

Pre-Market Update: The bulls were on a four-session roll, but they were sidelined by the bears during Friday’s market pullback. The bulls easily won the week and are trying to show monthly gains, as tech and the small-caps continue to work towards fresh 52-week and all-time highs. However, the bears are still holding the blue-chips and the broader market hostage heading into the final week of September.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Finisar (FNSR) Showing Strong Momentum

Mid-Market Update: Shares of Finisar (FNSR, $29.30, up $0.37) have been on fire since making a low of $15.21 back on May 19. The rebound can be attributed to back-to-back quarters of solid earnings reports, with the most recent quarterly results earlier this month coming in $0.08 ahead of estimates. Revenues were also higher at $341 million versus forecasts for a reading of $332 million. During the prior three quarters, earnings topped expectations by $0.04, $0.03 and $0.02.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Nasdaq Taps Record Highs; New Trade (FNSR)

Pre-Market Update: The market was flat ahead of the Fed’s decision on interest rates yesterday, but it rallied into the close after rates were left unchanged. Although the zombies gave no plausible excuse to raise rates, they did say in their meeting minutes that the case to raise rates had strengthened, and Wall Street is now looking for a possible hike in November or December.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Apple Could Clear $120 on Continued Strength; Profit Alerts (CBI, XLNX)

Mid-Market Update: Futures were forecasting a decent open this morning as I wrapped up last night’s research, but the major indices have faded heading into the second half of trading today. The biggest clues I’m looking for this week are for the bulls to get volatility below 15 and for tech and the small-caps to show continued strength.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bulls Get the Weekly Win

Pre-Market Update: The bears took advantage of the quadruple-witching Friday last week, which is when index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures expire on the same day. While these are normally bullish days, the selling pressure during the opening weakness carried over into the closing bell to keep the bulls at bay. However, despite the whipsaw action, the bulls got the weekly win.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bulls Holding Weekly Lead

Pre-Market Update: The most hated rally in history marches on, as the bulls’ rebound efforts continued on Thursday. The bears were crying for a lot of fouls and, while they tried to hack away at the gains at the open, they eventually got blown out for the session. Like any five-game series, today’s action will determine this week’s winner, but the bulls have slightly more momentum heading into this morning’s open.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Wishy-Washy Action Continues

Pre-Market Update: The bulls tried to hold down the fort on Wednesday following Tuesday’s bearish backtest, but they had trouble on some fronts, and the indices closed the session mixed. It remains to be seen if the back-and-forth action will continue or if one index will start to show more strength than the others. The bears haven’t gone anywhere, but they might be getting tired from the massive price swings we have witnessed this week.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bulls Rebound Again

Mid-Market Update: This week’s see-saw action has continued through the first half of trading today, with the bulls rebounding from yesterday’s losses and pushing higher highs this morning. I mentioned previously that September option expiration day is this Friday and, with the FOMC meeting next week, traders should stay buckled up, as the whipsaw action will likely continue into next week.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bears Regain Lost Momentum

Pre-Market Update: The market moved more than 1% for the third-straight session on Tuesday and gave back all of Monday’s gains. Although the zombies are officially in a “quiet period” ahead of next week’s upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the slick-talking pros continue to chime in on interest rates and overall market conditions. The wacky action will likely continue throughout the week and into next, and the bulls need to hold Monday’s lows today or face further downside pressure.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

VIX Closes Just Above 15

Pre-Market Update: I often say that one day doesn’t make or break a trend, especially when one side battles back the following session. The bulls did exactly that during Monday’s rebound following another bearish attack at the open. The lack of follow-through by the bears and the recovery of prior support levels from last Friday’s pullback were bullish signs. Another pullback would likely lead to continued elevated volatility, but today’s action should provide better clues as to how the rest of the week will play out.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Small-Caps Hold 50-Day Moving Average

Pre-Market Update: I often say that the longer the trading range goes on, the bigger the breakout or breakdown will be. Following a tight trading range that lasted throughout the summer, the bears sent a chilling reminder to the bulls on Friday that they should not get too comfortable. The incredible run by tech, the small-caps and the overall market off of the late-June lows was begging for a pullback, and the one we saw on Friday caught Wall Street off guard.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Backup Support in Play

Mid-Market Update: The bears are waking up, and today’s action will likely give them the weekly win barring a comeback by the bulls. Today’s pullback is being blamed on the Fed and worries about a potential rate hike, as the zombies are preparing for their upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Tech Closes at Record High

Pre-Market Update: Tuesday’s action was choppy as traders returned from the three-day holiday weekend, but the bulls powered through the session to get the win. Tech led the action once again and closed at an all-time high. The small-caps slacked, but they showed resiliency by holding positive territory for much of the second half of trading.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Earnings for the Week

Mid-Market Update: With September coming into focus more clearly, second-quarter earnings are now an afterthought, and Wall Street will begin to concentrate on October and third-quarter earnings. Of course, there will still be major companies reporting throughout the month, as their fiscal years started in different quarterly cycles.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bulls on Track for Weekly Win; Profit Alert (RMBS)

Mid-Market Update: This morning’s nonfarm payrolls report that showed 151,000 jobs added in August disappointed economists, but it thrilled Wall Street, as the chances for a September rate hike have now become slimmer. I will stay out of the rate debate because all I care about at the moment is the market action and higher highs given our current bullish positions.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bulls Hold Support Despite Lower Lows

Pre-Market Update: I mentioned that the market could remain slightly volatile this week ahead of this morning’s jobs report, and the bulls did a good job of holding lower lows on the stretch below near-term support yesterday before the second-half rebound back into positive territory. The mixed close was not hard to imagine, but how the market closes ahead of this three-day weekend is much more important.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

August Ends Mixed, Bulls Stay in Control

Pre-Market Update: The bulls and bears split the month of August, as the Dow closed lower by 32 points, while the S&P 500 dipped 3 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq gained 51 points, and the Russell 2000 advanced 20 points. I mentioned throughout last month that the small-caps were playing catchup and would need to lead the next leg higher. Despite Wednesday’s pullback, the bulls are still in charge.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bears Return, Do Little Damage

Pre-Market Update: The bulls tried to rally the troops on Tuesday’s open, but the bears took over shortly afterwards and controlled the rest of the session. The late-day lows were blamed on weaker-than-expected economic figures and a rising dollar, according to the market pundits. However, the continued trading range is still the main theme of this market, although a possible breakout or breakdown could occur this week or next.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

VIX Falls 5%, Back Into Safe Zone

Pre-Market Update: Monday’s action brought some much-needed relief, as the bulls recovered short-term support and pushed prior resistance levels. The VIX showed a little nervousness on the open, but it settled down and recovered its near-term support levels. I often say that one day doesn’t make a trend, but the rebound from last Friday’s late-day weakness was a good sign for the few of us that are still long the market.

Momentum Options, Daily Update

Bears Get Weekly Win on Friday Fade

Pre-Market Update: The bulls are trying to wind down August with a victory, and they are slightly ahead of the bears with three trading days left in the month. Tech and the small-caps led last week’s rally to record highs before the market pullback later in the week. However, the subsequent damage to the blue-chips and the S&P 500 has given the bears renewed hope, as they are showing losses for August and are growling heading into September.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

VIX Holds 50-day Moving Average

Pre-Market Update: The bears got their second-straight win on Thursday, although the bulls held near-term support. Volatility stayed elevated but held resistance. The financial sector traded higher ahead of this morning’s Fed comments and is holding slight gains for the week. Given the circumstances, today’s close should offer great clues as to how next week and the beginning of September might play out.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

VIX Rises 8%

Pre-Market Update: The battle between the bulls and bears resulted in a Monday draw, with the major indices trading within another tight intraday range. This type of action could continue into Friday, but Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments on interest rates and the current state of the economy could lead to a possible breakout or breakdown.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Record Highs Back in Play

Pre-Market Update: The bulls finally had a strong Monday showing, as the blue-chips ended a four-week Monday losing streak with yesterday’s win. The other indices also performed well, and record highs and a major move above resistance were achieved. The VIX spiked a little on the open, but it was nothing serious, as the momentum continues to push the market higher.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Sign, Sign, Everywhere a Sign

Pre-Market Update: The market finished mostly higher last week, but the small-caps failed to pull their weight. The gains were slight, but they should keep the bullish momentum going. This week could produce much of the same push-and-pull action, and earnings will likely produce the biggest winners and losers on an individual basis. Overall, the bulls are trying to rally other sectors of the market, as retail stocks are starting to break out, and they will remain in focus this week.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Bulls Trying to Hold Weekly Gains

Mid-Market Update: The market has been slightly weak for most of today’s session, but the bulls are trying to hold their gains for the week. The Dow went into Monday’s open at 18,543 and has traded to a low of 18,568 today, while the S&P 500 closed last Friday at 2,182 and has tested a low of 2,180. The Nasdaq and Russell came into the week at 5,221 and 1,231, respectively, and both indices have traded below these levels today.

Momentum Options, Daily Update

Kohl’s (KSS) on Deck with Earnings

Mid-Market Update: One of my favorite retailers to play options on is Kohl’s (KSS, $39.22, up $1.52) and, with the company scheduled to report earnings Thursday morning, there may be an opportunity to go long or short. Analysts are expecting the company to earn $1.04 a share on revenue of $4.16 billion. The high estimate is pegged at $1.12 a share, with a lowball number at $0.94 a share. This could mean a headline beat of $0.08 or an earnings miss of $0.10 a share.

Daily Update, Momentum Options

Nasdaq Closes at Record High

Pre-Market Update: Add the Nasdaq to the club, as it was the latest index to tap record all-time highs in recent weeks. Although there was a little late-day weakness on Tuesday, the bulls showed some strength to get the win. The bears are looking for an opening, but they may have to wait for the small-caps to clear 1,300 before we can start looking for a possible near-term market top.

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