The Monday/Friday closes continue to be mixed, and this often is the case during trading ranges. The Dow closed lower last Monday to snap a two-win streak, but it has closed lower on four of the past six Mondays. This is a slightly bearish sign.
Mid-Market Update: The last trading day of the year has historically been bearish for the Nasdaq, as the index has fallen nearly 80% of the time during this period over the past 15 years. This follows an incredible streak from the early 1970s up until 1999, during which time tech closed higher on the last trading session of the year for a remarkable 29-straight years.
The market pulled back on Wednesday, as the major indices stayed underwater throughout the session. The damage was minimal, but volatility has heightened heading into the final trading day of 2015.
Pre-Market Update: The market pulled back on Wednesday, as the major indices stayed underwater throughout the session. The damage was minimal, but volatility has heightened heading into the final trading day of 2015.
Mid-Market Update: I mentioned in Monday’s Pre-Market Update that this week would be crucial in determining how the market could play out in 2016. With the last trading day of the year approaching quickly, tomorrow will be a fascinating day to watch the action in the markets, reflect on 2015 and count down the year for America and Wall Street.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls cleared major resistance on Tuesday to reposition themselves for another possible test to all-time highs. The tops of the trading ranges are once again in play, but another stalled attempt would be a bearish development.
Buy Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) common stock at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: The bulls are once again making a run to the top of the major indices’ trading ranges, which have been in play since mid-October. Today’s rally has been relatively broad-based, and the price of oil is rebounding as well.
Pre-Market Update: Santa has been missing for the past two sessions, and the bears took advantage of a nervous Wall Street on Monday to push the market’s near-term support levels. The technical picture worsened, but there were a couple of signals that showed that the bulls are still interested in pushing the tops of the current trading ranges.
Buy to open the SNE February 24 puts (SNE160219P00024000, $0.85, down $0.25) at current levels.
Buy Relypsa (RLYP) common stock at current levels.
For every 100 shares you buy, sell to open one contract of the RLYP January 30 call (RYLP160115C00030000, $2.15, down $0.30) at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: The financial stocks are leading today’s pullback following a weak open and another backtest to support. European stocks closed in the red for the day, but the major U.S. indices are now off of their lows.
Buy to open the GRMN January 38 calls (GRMN160115C00038000, $0.38, down $0.07) at current levels.
Buy to open the GRMN April 40 calls (GRMN160415C00040000, $0.80, down $0.05) at current levels.
Pre-Market Update: The market was relatively flat on Thursday, as the major indices ended mixed at the close of the shortened trading session. However, it was a big week for the bulls, as they held the lower ends of the trading ranges that have developed since October.
The nearly three-month battle will likely last into the New Year. The bears are keeping volatility elevated into the last trading week of the year and will be fighting hard to keep the upper end of the trading ranges in check. I recommend closing Discovery Laboratories (DSCO) at this morning’s open, and I have a new Stop Limit for Galena Biopharma (GALE).
The bulls took advantage of another strong rally on Wednesday to clear the indices’ major moving averages, and they are looking to end the week on an even higher note. The bears could end up hibernating into the end of the year, as today is the first “official” day of what may turn out to be a Santa Claus rally. However, volume has been light, and investors will need to decide if they are willing to hold stocks over the upcoming three-day weekend.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls took advantage of another strong rally on Wednesday to clear the indices’ major moving averages, and they are looking to end the week on an even higher note. The bears could end up hibernating into the end of the year, as today is the first “official” day of what may turn out to be a Santa Claus rally. However, volume has been light, and investors will need to decide if they are willing to hold stocks over the upcoming three-day weekend.
Mid-Market Update: The market has been in a strong uptrend throughout the day following better-than-expected economic news from a variety of sectors. Housing, energy, income and spending, and consumer confidence numbers impressed Wall Street and put traders in a buying mood.
Pre-Market Update: Despite some early-morning weakness, the bulls continued their rebound on Tuesday to clear near-term resistance. Volatility continues to fall, but it is still slightly elevated, which is keeping the bears alive. A continued rally today could lead to a run towards the market’s upper resistance levels and the major moving averages.
Buy to open the IRBT January 37 calls (IRBT160115C00037000, $0.65, up $0.10) at current levels.
Buy to open the IRBT March 40 calls (IRBT160318C00040000, $1.05, up $0.05) at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: The bulls are looking to get their second-straight win following the shaky trading that occurred during the first half of today’s session. After opening higher, the major indices pulled back for the first hour of trading this morning, but they are rebounding strongly as we head into the close.
Pre-Market Update: The market rebounded on Monday to push its near-term resistance levels despite some mid-day weakness. Fresh support and the bottoms of the October trading ranges held on the intraday pullback off of the highs, and volatility uncoiled slightly over the course of the session.
Mid-Market Update: Futures were strong throughout the night and into this morning’s open, which led to a nice gap higher, but the major indices are now off of their highs. The bulls need to show continued strength into the close today and hold the market’s near-term resistance levels.
PreMarket Update: The bulls tried to hold on to the weekly win, but the bears used the final hour of trading last Friday to get the upset. The technical damage was severe, as the indices closed below their major moving averages. The December lows are holding, for the most part, but they will be in play again if there is no rebound today and if the bottoms of the mid-October trading ranges fail to hold.
The bulls tried to hold on to the weekly win, but the bears used the final hour of trading last Friday to get the upset. The technical damage was severe, as the indices closed below their major moving averages. The December lows are holding, for the most part, but they will be in play again if there is no rebound today and if the bottoms of the mid-October trading ranges fail to hold.
Mid-Market Update: Believe it or not, fourth-quarter earnings season is less than a month away, and it will most likely have a major impact on how January’s market action unfolds. However, there are still a handful of companies that are scheduled to report earnings into the end of 2015. These companies are on different fiscal-year cycles, and their reports are worth watching, as they could offer clues as to what might be in store for next month.
The Stop Limit of $2.75 triggered on the IRBT January 34 calls.
Pre-Market Update: The bears ruined the Fed’s post-hike party by pushing the market’s fresh support levels on Thursday. The bulls held these levels into the close to keep the current trading range intact, but they need another rebound to keep Wall Street excited.
Mid-Market Update: The bulls tried to keep their momentum following yesterday’s push past resistance, but today’s opening pop has faded on a backtest to fresh support. The market is off of its lows for the session, and the close should offer important clues as to how Friday and next week might play out.
The Fed raised interest rates yesterday for the first time since June of 2006, and the bears ran for cover. The bulls pushed the market’s upper resistance levels and are once again eyeballing a run to all-time highs. There are only 10 trading days left in the year, and this Friday is “quadruple witching” day, which is when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire. With volatility still slightly elevated, the bulls will need to keep their momentum if they want to finish the year in positive territory.
Pre-Market Update: The Fed raised interest rates yesterday for the first time since June of 2006, and the bears ran for cover. The bulls pushed the market’s upper resistance levels and are once again eyeballing a run to all-time highs. There are only 10 trading days left in the year, and this Friday is “quadruple witching” day, which is when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire. With volatility still slightly elevated, the bulls will need to keep their momentum if they want to finish the year in positive territory.
Buy to open the GE January 31 calls (GE160115C00031000, $0.47, up $0.11) at current levels.
Buy to open the GE February 32 calls (GE160219C00032000, $0.40, up $0.05) at current levels.
Raise the Exit Target to from $2.20 to $3.00 on the IRBT January 34 calls.
Raise the Stop Limit order from $1.30 to $1.50 on the IRBT January 34 calls.
Mid-Market Update: Futures were strong throughout the night and into this morning’s open as the market prepared itself for today’s big decision on interest rates. The opening rally pushed up against resistance but has since faded, and the major indices are now flat heading into the final hours of trading.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls are right where they want to be ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on interest rates. It remains to be seen if last week’s test to the bottom of October’s trading range will lead to a retest of the top of the range and a possible breakout, but the action is playing out just like we have planned following tax-loss-selling season.
Buy to open the HAL January 40 calls (HAL160115C00040000, $0.73, up $0.14) at current levels.
Buy to open the V January 82.50 calls (V160115C00082500, $0.55, up $0.25) at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: The market opened strong today, and the major indices are holding their gains as we head into the final hours of trading. It remains to be seen how today’s close will shape up, but it will be a slightly bullish sign if the indices can hold their key resistance levels.
Pre-Market Update: The market showed signs that it was trying to form a bottom on Monday despite the continued pullback in the small-caps and transports. After enduring the early selling pressure, the major indices gained strength into the close as volatility edged slightly lower. The bulls held support, while the bears struggled to hold resistance to keep the current trading ranges intact.
Mid-Market Update: Futures were erratic throughout the night and into this morning’s open, as they exhibited multiple swings of 0.5% or more. Overseas markets are taking a shellacking today, and the carry-over effect caused some first-half weakness in U.S. markets. The good news is that the bulls held the lows and have made a push into positive territory this afternoon.
December option expiration week is usually a bullish time period for the market. A positive close today would be helpful for a possible bullish rebound this week, but the bears will likely take advantage of the nervousness heading in Wednesday’s possible rate hike.
Pre-Market Update: Last week, the market suffered one of its worst runs in months, as the bears took advantage of tax-loss selling season, tumbling oil prices and a nervous Fed. The bulls tried to maintain the bottoms of the mid-October trading ranges, but they were stretched as selling pressure picked up steam into Friday’s close.
Mid-Market Update: Futures were erratic throughout the night, as they were positive ahead of the overseas market open. However, the futures market took a turn for the worse just before trading began on Wall Street this morning. Concerns about China, a continued slide in oil and the selloff in high-yield bonds have caused some panic-selling today, and the bottoms of the mid-October trading ranges are coming into play.
Sell to close the HRS December 85 calls at current levels.
Sell to close the QQQ December 117 calls at current levels.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls snapped their three-session losing streak to test resistance on Wednesday and, while the bears made a little noise on the open, they looked tired following their week-long binge. The market has a lot of ground to make up today or it could face a losing week inside of the continued trading range that has lasted since mid-October.
Buy to open the IRBT January 34 calls (IRBT160115C00034000, $1.10, up $0.40) at current levels.
Buy to open the CSCO January 27 calls (CSCO160115C00027000, $0.53, up $0.05) at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: Trading was a little choppy this morning before the bulls made a push past the market’s fresh resistance levels. The bears are trying to hold these levels as we head into the final hours of today’s action, but volatility seems tame today. This could lead to a positive or mildly lower close, as the recent trading ranges continue to play out.
The bears got their third-straight win on Wednesday, although the bulls were able to hold the market’s lower levels of support. The major moving averages were slightly stretched, but they are still in bullish setups despite the worries on Wall Street. However, the bulls need to make a stand today or the action could get a lot worse due to panic-selling.
Pre-Market Update: The bears got their third-straight win on Wednesday, although the bulls were able to hold the market’s lower levels of support. The major moving averages were slightly stretched, but they are still in bullish setups despite the worries on Wall Street. However, the bulls need to make a stand today or the action could get a lot worse due to panic-selling.
Mid-Market Update: The bulls got off to a good start this morning, as the market opened higher to push near-term resistance. However, the bears decided they weren’t through with their recent feast and have come back to the table for a third helping.
Buy to open the INTC January 36 calls (INTC160115C00036000, $0.60, up $0.05) at current levels.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls spent Tuesday’s session defending key support levels, which ultimately held for the second-straight day. The bears are showing strength, but much of the losses have come as a result of the backtest to support after Friday’s rebound rally. Volatility spiked to higher levels than we saw on Monday, which indicates that we still need to be cautious, as the “fear gauge” cleared resistance.
Mid-Market Update: It’s never easy picking a bottom in a stock, and trying to catch a falling knife can be scary. With shares of GoPro (GPRO, $17.70, up $0.19) trading to a fresh 52-week low of $17.24 on Monday, this is exactly what buying call options in GPRO must feel like.
Buy to open the MDT January 80 calls (MDT160115C00080000, $0.72, up $0.03) at current levels.
Pre-Market Update: The market sputtered from the start of trading on Monday until the closing bell, but the major indices were able to finish the session off of their intraday lows. There was some buying activity into the close, as support held on the pullback, but volatility stayed elevated. I mentioned that the whipsaw action could continue going into next week, but that could be the perfect opportunity to add new bullish or bearish trades.
Mid-Market Update: Futures were slightly higher heading into this morning’s open, but the bulls fell flat in early trading and have struggled ever since. The major indices have been bleeding red the entire session, but the losses are holding at about 1%. Volatility has spiked once again, but the bears are having trouble clearing and holding their key resistance levels.
The Stop Limit of $1.65 triggered on the MDT January 77.50 calls.
With the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates next week, I have said that the market could rally on a rate hike. Most of the suits-and-ties have said that the market will tumble once the Fed starts to raise rates, but I have been saying that the financial stocks need to lead the next rally to higher highs.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls rebounded on Friday get the weekly win following a backtest to support. Fed-speak, economic news, overseas stimulus shenanigans and geopolitical tensions all worried Wall Street, and the bears took advantage of the weakness. However, the bears could be ready to roll over once the current trading ranges are resolved, as the charts remain bullish.
Mid-Market Update: Earnings announcements will continue to stream in for the next couple of weeks before companies take a break from updating Wall Street. Earnings news will slow dramatically during the week of Christmas and going into the New Year, so potential earnings trades will be harder to find until mid-January.
Sell to close the IWM December 124 calls at current levels.
Pre-Market Update: The bears did some technical damage on Thursday, as the market’s key technical support levels came into play. The bulls held the 50-day moving averages, but the Dow and S&P 500 failed to hold their 200-day moving averages. However, this morning’s jobs report could either cause additional selling pressure or a possible relief rally.
Mid-Market Update: Futures were showing a positive open this morning, but the bulls’ opening rally has faded once again. Disappointing news from overseas is contributing to today’s pullback, as the European Central Bank (ECB)’s stimulus package fell short of expectations.
Sell to close the CMCSA December 65 calls at current levels.
The back-and-forth action continued on Wednesday, as the market closed lower following a backtest to support. Volatility picked up slightly during Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday, and Wall Street seemed to be a little nervous ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report.
Pre-Market Update: The back-and-forth action continued on Wednesday, as the market closed lower following a backtest to support. Volatility picked up slightly during Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech yesterday, and Wall Street seemed to be a little nervous ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report.
Buy to open the MDT January 77.50 calls (MDT160115C00077500, $1.09, down $0.19) at current levels.
Buy to open the MGM January 25 calls (MGM160115C00025000, $0.53, up $0.14) at current levels.
Buy to open the GLD January 95 puts (GLD160115P00095000, $0.51, up $0.14) at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: Shares of Medtronic (MDT, $75.80, down $0.71) have been trading within a tight trading since early November, and the company is scheduled to release its next earnings report ahead of the open on Thursday.
Pre-Market Update: The market cleared its major resistance levels on Tuesday despite the release of weaker-than-expected economic news after the open. The ISM manufacturing index reading came in at 48.6 for November, which was its worst level in six years. This was well below expectations for a print of 50.5, and it may have spooked some of the Fed heads. However, the bulls brushed the bad news off to push higher highs into the closing bell.
Mid-Market Update: Verint Systems (VRNT, $46.65, down $0.20) is scheduled to announce earnings following Wednesday’s close, and Wall Street is expecting a reading of $0.79 a share on revenue north of $298 million. The company has topped estimates during the last four quarters by $0.02, $0.12, $0.04 and $0.09, respectively.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls lost their second-straight Monday following an opening push to near-term resistance. The bears controlled the majority of the session, but they did little damage, as near-term support and the current trading range held.
Mid-Market Update: I mentioned in this morning’s Pre-Market Update that third-quarter earnings season will start to wind down over the next few weeks ahead of the Christmas holiday. However, there might be an earnings trade or two this week that could be worth a look.
Despite the repeated “market top” calls throughout 2015, the major indices are just 2% away, on average, from setting fresh all-time highs. The small-caps, on the other hand, are roughly 8% away from setting lifetime highs, so they have a little more work to do. However, the Russell 2000 has led this month’s continued rally and could make up ground, as a rising dollar benefits small-caps more than larger, multi-national conglomerates.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls got the overall market win last week despite the slight pullback in the blue-chips. The small-caps and tech have led this month’s rally, but the bears are within striking distance of getting at least a market split for the month, with today being the last trading session of November.
The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.19, down 0.74) traded in negative territory throughout the session with the low checking-in at 15.05. A move and close below 15 today would be fabulous. Resistance is at 16.50-17.50.
The Dow is lower by 10 points for the week, while the S&P is down less than a point. The Nasdaq is up a twelve-pack while the Russell is up 23 points, or 2%.
Pre-Market Update: The Dow is lower by 10 points for the week, while the S&P is down less than a point. The Nasdaq is up a twelve-pack while the Russell is up 23 points, or 2%.
As a reminder, I won’t be publishing the Mid-Market Update this afternoon due to today’s shortened session. The market will close at 1 p.m. (EST). I could have a New Trade or Profit Alert but, if you don’t hear from me by noon EST, have a good Black Friday and weekend!
Mid-Market Update: Today’s weakness is still holding support at the 50- and 100-day moving averages, and both are leveling out. If support continues to hold this week, I would expect the start of another uptrend to start next week.
Pre-Market Update: The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 15.93, up 0.31) was a hot potato on the open with the hotness reaching 17.21 on the opening weakness. The bulls stayed cool, however, as they held the 17.50 level for the third-straight session and for the fifth-straight close. A close above 15 would confirm higher near-term highs.
Mid-Market Update: Commodities like gold and silver are showing a little strength today but can’t be trusted as bullish investments with a rising dollar. We could be getting close to a shorting opportunity in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) today or tomorrow.
Pre-Market Update: It was a see-saw battle on Monday with the bears ultimately getting the overall market win to start the week. The losses were limited as the bulls battled back into the closing bell while holding near-term support for the most part. Today’s action will likely heat up with a number of high-profile companies reporting earnings.
Mid-Market Update: I’m expecting a slight uptrend this week and a possible bigger move next week as Wall Street and fund managers get back to a full week of work. Volume should be light with the shortened trading week. It will also be the turn into December and the suits-and-ties will need to show some positive yearly results for their clients.
Buy to open the HRS December 85 calls (HRS151218C00085000, $1.25, up $0.35) at current levels.
This week historically favors the bulls but volatility could remain slightly elevated in a shortened holiday week. Volume could also dry up and lead to wilder price swings as the suits-and-ties take extended vacations around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Pre-Market Update: This week historically favors the bulls but volatility could remain slightly elevated in a shortened holiday week. Volume could also dry up and lead to wilder price swings as the suits-and-ties take extended vacations around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Mid-Market Update: I’m preparing for continued upside but next month promises to be extremely volatile as the Fed comes closer into play. In fact, I’m prepping for another possible 1,000+ point move in the Dow for December. The direction could be up or down and the clues should come over the next two weeks.
Pre-Market Update: The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX, 16.99, up 0.14) spiked to a high of 18.26 on the opening weakness before holding 17.50-17 throughout the session. A move above 17.50 into the weekend would be a slightly bearish development. A close below 15.50-15 are the confirmation levels we are looking for to confirm possible higher market highs
Buy to open the HON January 110 calls (HON160115C00110000, $0.85, up $0.19) at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: Shares of Square (SQ, $13, up $4) made their debut this morning in an initial public offering (IPO) that was priced at $9 a share. The company priced 27 million shares, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan leading the offering.
Buy to open the HRS December 85 calls (HRS151218C00085000, $1.25, up $0.35) at current levels.
Sell to close the CY November 10 calls at current levels.
The bulls reclaimed resistance on Wednesday despite the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which showed that a possible December interest-rate hike is still in the cards.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls reclaimed resistance on Wednesday despite the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which showed that a possible December interest-rate hike is still in the cards.
Buy to open the WFC December 57.50 calls (WFC151218C00057500, $0.38, up $0.06) at current levels.
Mid-Market Update: Retail stocks have been taken to the woodshed in recent weeks, as lousy earnings, warm weather and high inventory levels have punished the sector. Best Buy (BBY, $31.34, up $0.63) will try to avoid the pitfalls that have plagued other retailers when it announces its numbers ahead of tomorrow’s open.
Pre-Market Update: The bears held resistance and the indices’ major moving averages into Tuesday’s close, as the market pulled back to finish flat for the day. The bulls are holding support, however, and they are trying to regain momentum, but volatility remains elevated.
Mid-Market Update: Futures were showing a strong open this morning, and the gains have held through the first half of today’s session. It is possible that there could be a second-half fade, but the Dow and S&P 500 are pushing major resistance at their 200-day moving averages.
Pre-Market Update: The bulls got the win on Monday despite new geopolitical concerns, while the VIX fell back below 20. One day doesn’t make a trend, but the action looked bullish following a weak attack by the bears at the open.
Mid-Market Update: The bears pushed the market’s near-term support levels at the start of trading, but the weakness has since failed to hold. While trading was tight throughout the first half of today’s session, the bulls are now showing some momentum as we head into the close.
The bears snapped their six-week losing streak last week while cracking several layers of support on the major indices. The damage was severe, and the Dow and S&P 500 fell back into negative territory for the year. This week promises to be just as volatile, as geopolitical events are likely to come into play.
Pre-Market Update: The bears snapped their six-week losing streak last week while cracking several layers of support on the major indices. The damage was severe, and the Dow and S&P 500 fell back into negative territory for the year. This week promises to be just as volatile, as geopolitical events are likely to come into play.
